Cotton is measured through several distinct supply-chain indicators: production, mill use, international trade, ending stocks and prices. The figures below focus mainly on the 2024/25 marketing year, which USDA generally defines as August 1, 2024 through July 31, 2025; forecasts and estimates are identified explicitly.
Key Cotton Statistics
The most useful headline figures are:
- 120.2 million 480-pound bales were projected for world cotton production in the 2024/25 marketing year.
- World production was forecast 6% above 2023/24 for the 2024/25 marketing year.
- Brazil was forecast to produce 16.7 million bales in 2024/25.
- Brazil’s projected harvested area was 1.94 million hectares in 2024/25.
- Global cotton mill use was forecast at 117.2 million bales in 2024/25.
- China was projected to use 39.0 million bales in the 2024/25 marketing year.
- India was forecast to use 25.5 million bales in 2024/25.
- The top five consuming countries were projected to account for more than 76% of world mill use in 2024/25.
- World cotton trade was projected at 44.6 million bales in 2024/25.
- U.S. cotton exports were forecast at 13.0 million bales in 2024/25.
- Brazilian cotton exports were projected at 12.5 million bales in 2024/25.
- China, Bangladesh and Vietnam were projected to account for 60% of global cotton imports in 2024/25.
- Global ending stocks were forecast at 82.6 million bales at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year.
- The global stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at approximately 71% in 2024/25.
- The U.S. upland farm price was projected at 68 cents per pound in 2024/25.
- U.S. cotton ending stocks were projected at 5.3 million bales in 2024/25.
Contents
- Global cotton production statistics and regional trends
- Cotton mill-use statistics by consuming country
- Cotton trade statistics: exports and imports
- Cotton stocks, prices and supply-balance data
- U.S. cotton farm and export statistics
Global Cotton Production Statistics and Regional Trends
The July 2024 USDA Cotton and Wool Outlook projected world production at 120.2 million 480-pound bales in 2024/25, 6%, or 6.5 million bales, above 2023/24. The projection was also 4% above the USDA five-year average.
A bale in these reports equals 480 pounds. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
Brazil was the most prominent regional growth story in the supplied outlooks. Its 2024/25 production was forecast at a record 16.7 million bales, up 14.5%, or 2.1 million bales, from the previous season; the 2023/24 crop was estimated at a record 14.6 million bales. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024 United States and Brazil compete as top global cotton exporter
| Production measure | Period | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil harvested area | 2024/25 forecast | 1.94 million hectares |
| Brazil harvested-area change | Versus 2023/24 | +17% |
| Brazil yield | 2023/24 estimate | 1,911 kg per hectare |
| Brazil yield | 2024/25 forecast | 1,874 kg per hectare |
| Australia production | 2024/25 forecast | 5.0 million bales |
Brazil’s projected harvested area was the highest since 1991/92, while its projected 2024/25 yield was below the 2023/24 record. These figures show why production can rise even when yield does not set a new high. Cotton and Wool Outlook: May 2024
Australia’s 2024/25 production was forecast unchanged from the prior season at 5.0 million bales because higher area was expected to offset lower national yield. The U.S. outlook called for a production rebound, but dryland expansion in the Southwest was expected to reduce yield; this was a directional forecast rather than a stated yield value. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
Cotton Mill-Use Statistics by Consuming Country
Mill use measures cotton fiber consumed by mills, not finished garments. USDA forecast global mill use at 117.2 million bales in 2024/25, up nearly 3.5%, or 3.9 million bales, and the highest level in four years.
The top five consuming countries were projected to account for more than 76% of world mill use. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
| Country or group | 2024/25 mill-use forecast | Share or change |
|---|---|---|
| China | 39.0 million bales | 33% of world use |
| India | 25.5 million bales | 22% of world use; +2% |
| Pakistan | 9.5 million bales | +300,000 bales |
| Bangladesh | 8.0 million bales | +4% |
| Turkey | 7.5 million bales | +15% |
| Vietnam | 7.1 million bales | +3.5% |
China’s projected use was 500,000 bales above 2023/24 and the highest since 2020/21. India’s forecast rose by 500,000 bales, while Bangladesh, Turkey and Vietnam together were forecast to represent 19% of global cotton use. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
China and India together were projected to account for 64.2 million bales, or 55% of world mill use, in 2024/25. The concentration matters because mill use is a processing measure and should not be treated as equivalent to imports, exports or finished-textile production. Cotton and Wool Outlook: May 2024
Cotton Trade Statistics: Exports and Imports
International cotton trade was projected at 44.6 million bales in 2024/25, up 400,000 bales, or 1%, year over year. The export side remained concentrated: U.S. exports were forecast at 13.0 million bales, while Brazil’s were projected at 12.5 million bales, up 200,000 bales and a second consecutive record if realized. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
The United States and Brazil together were projected to contribute more than 55% of global cotton exports. Australia’s 2024/25 exports were forecast at 5.3 million bales, down 700,000 bales from 2023/24, after a record 6.2 million bales in 2022/23. Cotton and Wool Outlook: May 2024 Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
| Importing country | Period | Cotton imports |
|---|---|---|
| China | 2024/25 forecast | 11.5 million bales |
| Bangladesh | 2024/25 forecast | 8.0 million bales |
| Vietnam | 2024/25 forecast | 7.1 million bales |
| Turkey | 2024/25 forecast | 4.7 million bales |
| Pakistan | 2024/25 forecast | 3.9 million bales |
China’s 2024/25 imports were projected below its estimated 14.8 million bales in 2023/24, which was the highest since 2012/13. Bangladesh imports were forecast up 8%, Vietnam imports up 4%, and Turkey and Pakistan each up 1.2 million bales.
China, Bangladesh and Vietnam together were projected to account for 60% of global cotton imports. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024 Cotton and Wool Outlook: May 2024
A June 2024 USDA outlook forecast Brazil’s 2023/24 exports at 12.4 million bales, surpassing U.S. exports and making Brazil the largest global exporter that season. Because that statement was a forecast at the time of the report, it should not be read as a final independently verified result. United States and Brazil compete as top global cotton exporter
Cotton Stocks, Prices and Supply-Balance Data
Ending stocks represent inventories at the end of a marketing year, while the stocks-to-use ratio compares those inventories with use under USDA’s balance-sheet definitions. Global 2024/25 ending stocks were forecast at 82.6 million bales, up 4%, or 3.3 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of approximately 71%. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
| Location | 2024/25 ending-stock forecast | Stated comparison |
|---|---|---|
| China | 40.9 million bales | Nearly half of world stocks |
| India | Approximately 10.2 million bales | +500,000 bales; 12% of world stocks |
| United States | 5.3 million bales | More than 2 million above prior year |
| Brazil | 4.1 million bales | +900,000 bales |
| Pakistan | 2.0 million bales | +350,000 bales |
China’s projected stocks were nearly half of the global total. India’s projected stocks were approximately 10.2 million bales, or 12% of world stocks; the rounded wording reflects the USDA presentation. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
The Cotlook A-Index, a world benchmark rather than a farm-gate price, was expected in the December 2024 outlook to average below the 2023/24 level of 92 U.S. cents per pound. The forecast therefore describes direction relative to a prior-season benchmark, not a specific 2024/25 price. Cotton and Wool Outlook: December 2024
U.S. Cotton Farm and Export Statistics
The U.S. 2024/25 stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 36%, 13 percentage points above 2023/24 and the highest in five years. U.S. cotton ending stocks were projected at 5.3 million bales, compared with 3.05 million bales in 2023/24 and 7.25 million bales in 2019/20. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
The average U.S. upland farm price was projected at 68 cents per pound in 2024/25. USDA described this as the third consecutive seasonal decline from the 2021/22 high; it is a producer average, not the Cotlook A-Index benchmark. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024
U.S. exports were revised to 11.6 million bales for 2023/24, the lowest since 2015/16. The July 2024 outlook then forecast 13.0 million bales for 2024/25, 700,000 bales above the estimated prior season. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2024 Cotton and Wool Outlook: May 2024
A later December 2024 USDA outlook forecast 2024/25 U.S. exports at 11.3 million bales, 450,000 bales, or 3.8%, below its prior projection. This difference illustrates why outlook vintages should be kept separate: later reports can revise earlier forecasts. Cotton and Wool Outlook: December 2024
Farm structure also appears in the 2022 U.S. data. Large-scale family farms accounted for 65% of cotton production value, while small family farms accounted for 4%; these are shares of production value, not shares of physical cotton output. United States and Brazil compete as top global cotton exporter
These measures should be read on their own terms: production is farm output, mill use is fiber consumed by mills, trade is international movement, ending stocks are inventories, and prices are benchmark or producer averages depending on the series. USDA marketing years also differ from calendar years, so a 2024/25 figure is not a simple January-to-December total.